The Northwest Passage and Cruise Shipping

(This is an edited version of The Northwest Passage paper in Arctic Cargo)

Much has been written about the Northwest Passage (NWP), mainly to do with Franklin’s disastrous voyage and the searches, first for him and his crew, later, for his two ships, which were successfully concluded in 2017 with the discovery of the Erebus. The transits of the cruise ship Crystal Serenity in 2016 and 2017 have also generated much attention.

This article is partly about the historic use of the passage (which is actually six routes), and partly about what the author’s expectations are for future traffic. Climate change has been the focus of much media attention in suggesting vast numbers of ships using the route in the future. However, these prognostications focus on supposed distance savings and overlook the fact that at the latitude of much of the NWP, it is dark for a substantial part of the year (60 days of total darkness at the latitude of Lancaster Sound), and there will still be ice, both during the open water period as well as during the winter. Also, there are many other factors that will affect different users of the passage. The primary alternative, which materially affects potential use by commercial shipping is the updated Panama Canal

 

http://northwestpassage2014.blogspot.ca/2014/04/nw-passage-2014-which-way-are-you-going.html¹

Transit History

For the purposes of this article, a transit means that the vessel traveled between the Atlantic and Pacific, or v.v. Also, transits are counted in the season that they started. Some transits, particularly by small craft, may take two or more seasons to complete. Small craft are considered to be any personal craft less than 100 feet or 30m in length. From 30m upwards, they are classed as mega yachts. These craft, although many are privately owned, may carry passengers as guests of the owner. Some are actually small cruise ships and available for charter, eg the “Hanse Explorer” 48m. Russian research icebreakers are treated as cruise ships, when they are on charter to cruise operators for passenger service.

The first transit, which was East to West, was undertaken by Roald Amundsen in the Gjoa between 1903 and 1906. There was then no activity until the RCMP schooner St Roch undertook a West to East transit that extended over two winters between 1940 and 1942. The boat then did a return trip in a single season in 1944. All was quiet until the Canadian icebreaker Labrador undertook an East to West transit it 1954, followed by three small USCG icebreakers in 1957, traveling West to East. Transit activity picked up over the 1960’s and 70’s with a transit by the tanker Mahattan in 1969. The ship left Chester (DE) on August 24 and reportedly visited Barrow² (AK) on 20 September. She returned to New York (NY) on 12 November. An interesting event took place in 1977 when the Dutch sailing vessel Williwaw undertook a single season transit. The Canadian yacht JE Bernier had started a transit in 1976, but didn’t complete it until 1979, so the credit for the first small craft transit goes to the Williwaw.

Activity during the 1980’s and 90’s was also relatively quiet, although a signature transit occurred in 1984 when the expedition cruise ship Linblad Explorer undertook an East to West voyage. This was the start of numerous cruise ship transits by different operators, although such transits were not seasonal events until after 1994. Numbers, though, have usually been less than five in a season until 2013 when seven cruise ships and mega yachts undertook transits. Cruise vessel numbers were still three ships, while the mega yachts made up the difference. One of the biggest, and on its third transit in 2012, was Paul Allen’s Octopus. At 128m it is as big as a small cruise ship, and its itinerary, this time from West to East, suggested that the owner might have been on board.

2013 was the first time a true cargo ship went through the NWP. The Nordic Orion undertook a transit with a reported cargo of 73,500tonnes of coal from Vancouver (BC) to the Finnish port of Pori. The trip commenced 06 September and was completed on 09 October. Earlier in the year the ship had carried 66,000tonnes of Iron Ore from Murmansk to Lanshan in China via the North East Passage (NEP). The ship owner sent the sister ship, Nordic Odyssey through the NEP, also with 73,500tonnes of coal from Vancouver also to Pori; this trip started on 04 October. Although not carrying cargo, an earlier commercial transit of the NWP took place in 1999 when a Russian icebreaker (Admiral Makarov) and accompanying tug (Irbis) towed two pieces of a dry dock from Korea to the Caribbean. There have been a number of project cargo moves in recent years.

 

Transits during the 1970’s

Type of Transit	70	71	72	73	74	75	76	77	78	79
Exploration and Research						3
RCMP
Canadian Icebreaker	2						1		1	2
Other Icebreaker
Small Boat							1	1		1
Cruise and Mega yacht
Commercial							T
Total	2					3	3	1	1	3

T=Tug or Anchor Handling Tug or Offshore Supply Vessel, C=Cable Layer

 

Transits during the 1980’s

Type of Transit	80	81	82	83	84	85	86	87	88	89
Exploration and Research	1			2
RCMP
Canadian Icebreaker	1	1		1					2
Other Icebreaker						1			1	1
Small Boat						1	1		1
Cruise and Mega yacht					1	1			1
Commercial				T
Total	2	1		4	1	3	1		5	1

 

Transits during the 1990’s

Type of Transit	90	91	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99
Exploration and Research
RCMP
Canadian Icebreaker	1		1			4	1
Other Icebreaker	1
Small Boat				1	1	2				1
Cruise and Mega yacht			2	2	3	1	2	2	2	1
Commercial										3
Total	2		3	3	4	7	3	2	2	5

 

Transits during the 2000’s

Type of Transit	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09
Exploration and Research
RCMP	1
Canadian Icebreaker	1
Other Icebreaker	1			1		1
Small Boat	1	3	2	3	2	2	2	3	6	11
Cruise and Mega yacht	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	2
Commercial			T						C
Total	6	5	5	6	4	5	4	5	8	13

 

Transits during the 2010’s

Type of Transit	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19
Exploration and Research								1
RCMP
Canadian Icebreaker				1		2	1
Other Icebreaker						2		2
Small Boat	11	15	12	12	7	13	11	23	1	12
Cruise and Mega yacht	2	1	5	7	4	4	5	4	1	7
Commercial	1		1	1	1		2	2+T	T	4
Total	14	16	18	21	12	21	19	33	3	22

 

A major change in activity has been the explosive growth in transits by personal craft, everything from rowboats to high-end yachts. As noted many of the small craft, perhaps underestimating the rigors of the passage, take two or more seasons to complete their transit. In 2017, apart from the extraordinary number of small boat transits, the Polar Prince, technically a research icebreaker for hire, was used as a small passenger ship on a voyage to celebrate Canada’s Sesquicentennial. Also, the Chinese research icebreaker Xue Long undertook an East to West transit. The first American Government transit in many years took place with the USCG buoy tender Maple. No mega yachts made a transit; they all cruised in the Eastern Arctic.

A good deal of publicity about the route came from the first Crystal Serenity trip in 2016. Although initially claimed as the first by a large passenger ship, this was later changed to the first West to East passenger ship trip, as The World had quietly undertaken its first trip in 2012 from East to West.

2018 was a bad year for ice and only one small craft, a mega yacht and a tug managed to sneak through. Some cruise ships hoped to, but the trips were cancelled. See pp140-144 and 190 in Penguins and Polar Bears for more detail. 2019 as will be seen was a banner year with four cruise ship transits, including The World making its second transit.

 

The Future

Looking at the transit mix, and probably because of the perception that climate change means an easy ride, it is obvious there is an attraction to “adventurers” in small boats who wish to pit their sailing skills against a still unforgiving ocean. In fact some have ended up having to be rescued by the Canadian Coastguard when the going has become too rough. Wealthy individuals will provide the support for a growing number of expedition vessels that will offer a luxurious trip through the North, and those with even more wealth will take their mega yachts on the same trip. We can expect these numbers to remain relatively high.

The situation is different for cargo carrying commercial vessels. There will certainly be opportunities for project cargo shipments from Far East locations such as South Korea and China to North America. For example, the Happy Rover, in 2016, which sailed from Ulsan in South Korea to Burnside on Lake Michigan. The ship had previously transited the NEP from Antwerp. The Africaborg also transited the NWP in 2016 from China to Baie Comeau with a cargo of carbon anodes for aluminium production; the Atlanticborg did a similar trip in 2017, and Amazoneborg undertook the first back-to back commercial vessel transit in 2019. West to East with carbon anodes, East to West with wood pulp.. These types of cargo, and ships, will be the primary commercial cargoes through the NWP, although in relatively small numbers.

There is little likelihood that the type of bulk carrier represented by the Nordic Orion will undertake future transits. Prior to the completion of the new Panama Canal locks with deeper draft, a case could be made for occasional use of the NWP because a Panamax³ ship (ie one designed to the dimensions of the Panama Canal) could not carry a full cargo due to canal draft restrictions⁴.

Much attention has been given to the possible use of the NWP by container ships hauling goods between China and the US Eastern Seaboard. However, these prognostications ignore the overall logistics chain and total delivery time from factory to US warehouse. Hofstra University estimates that containers can get to market in the central USA from China in 19 days via Prince Rupert (BC), but my estimate via NWP would be 27days via New York⁵.

However, the primary problem with arctic routes and the container trades is predictability. A cargo ship can readily accept a 1-2 day delay, a containership cannot. The days of “just in case” delivery are long gone, today “just in time” rules.

 

Conclusions

The NWP will likely remain the preserve of expedition ships, and small boats, with little attraction to commercial vessels.